The future of rimfire ammo?

[GhostHawk]

Well I have not cleaned out any stores, have not bought any for a year.

I did have a pretty nice stash passed on by my father in law that I have slowly been working through.
New stuff I buy is all online, and I watch for reasonable prices in brands that I trust. Mostly down to CCI, Federal although I do have 3 bricks of the Armscore made in the Phillipene's.

Mostly I have put the .22s away and shoot other things.
I can shoot .357 mag for less than .22lr and a whole lot more fun Same for 9mm in a Hipoint carbine.

Yeah its ugly,but dang it shoots! and it shoots cheap! Light loads of Red Dot, no gas checks needed, no tin or antimony required, I'm shooting pretty much range lead with just a touch of lino, or clip on WW, and it works fine in the carbine.

If I want to push the range I'm going to reach for tbe .223 and a cast boolit over more red dot.

If I need a bigger boom well that costs more.

Shoot what you got, find a way to make it work on a budget and everyone's happy.

[Ring3]

Wheeling WV Cabela's has 22 ammo every time I visit. Brands vary though. Rem, Win, Fed, CCI bulk packs. Usually have some match stuff too.

Prices higher than the old norm but not outrageous.

[shtur]

I was fortunate to buy all I could ever want before the buying/gouging/hording spree hit. I started buying 2 bricks every time it went on sale, because I wanted enough when I retired that I would not have to spend any of my retirement money buying it. My plans worked out...for once. I will not have to buy .22lr ammo for many years, if any.

[onehousecat]

Where I live, IF you see 22s on the shelf, 22 LR are 15 cents a round and 22 magnums are 40 cents a round. There may come a time in future in which I will pay those prices, but I doubt living that long.

[GhostHawk]

Gunbot still shows 9 cents a round as being the best price online. I think you could probably better that if you happen to be at the right place at the right time.

Far as I can see this is the new standard base price for .22lr.

[contender1]

Locally,,, the big box stores don't have any 22 LR. (Wally world, Dicks, Field & Stream, etc.) Smaller shops have some but they still have over-inflated prices.
To me,, a 22 LR has less lead, less powder & by using history,,, costs less to produce than other ammo. But to see prices at .05-.10 per round is overpricing.
Many say "it's about back to normal" and are paying $25+ for a box of "cheap" bulk stuff in 333 packs (or close to that.)
I recall that Federal bulk packs of 550 rounds were $18-$20 before the craze. To me, counting inflation, cost of materials etc,,, a bulk pack of 550 should be selling for about $20-$22 now, before I'd call it "normal."

Will .22 LR go away? Not likely unless the guberment shuts it all down. Remington is building another plant for it.

Add in the fact that a lot of shooters are not casters & do not have a source for ammo other than factory supplied. Nope, not going anywhere.

[Ballistics in Scotland]

The factories, foreign and domestic, are geared up to make it, and probably make a lot more of it than they did on a more stable market. I think market forces will cause the price to revert to normal when shooters stop hoarding, or replenishing stocks they ran down.

It would be interesting if any trade member can tell us whether the manufacturers and wholesalers are in on the "what the market will stand" pricing, or if it is just something that happens after the stocks leave their hands.

I think the .22LR is here to stay as a major market item. I can see the Magnum becoming an expensive rarity, though surely not vanishing altogether like the 5mm. Remington rimfire.

One thing that annoys me about Eley rimfires is that in the 1960s they advertised their High Velocity as having a velocity of 1400ft./sec., which at a hundred yards made it superior in all respects to the hypervelocity rounds which were afterwards developed. Now their nearest equivalent is only 1200. If they did 1400 then, they could do it now, and if they can't, they didn't.

[Bonz]

I've bought some recently for 0.07 per round. Just need to watch for sales and buy quickly. I can't see 22LR ever going away because so many companies are producing them now.

[Mauser48]

Before the craze the cheapest it was for me was $25 for 500. Thats fair in my opinion but I guess a lot of people used to get it for about $18. Cci makes 4 million rounds a day alone so theres obviously no shortage.

[rbuck351]

All the companies making 22LR are selling it faster than they can produce it. With a market like that, do you seriously think they are going to stop making it. It doesn't matter what you're selling, if people want more than you can make you've got a sweet deal going. 7 years now of producing 22LR 24/7 and still can't keep up. I'm surprised there aren't several new producers of 22LR. Look at all the new companies making ARs in the last 7 years. It has to be easier to make a 22LR round than a complete AR. On the other hand, some of this 17 rim fire stuff isn't selling well and I suspect there may only be one in the end. One thing I have noticed is as the surpressors are becoming more popular so is std vel 22lr and for that matter there seems to be more variety of hi speed than ever before as well. The next presidential election should cause another major change in ammo availability. Could be good, could be bad, depending on who is elected.

[dtknowles]

The factories, foreign and domestic, are geared up to make it, and probably make a lot more of it than they did on a more stable market. I think market forces will cause the price to revert to normal when shooters stop hoarding, or replenishing stocks they ran down.

It would be interesting if any trade member can tell us whether the manufacturers and wholesalers are in on the "what the market will stand" pricing, or if it is just something that happens after the stocks leave their hands.

I think the .22LR is here to stay as a major market item. I can see the Magnum becoming an expensive rarity, though surely not vanishing altogether like the 5mm. Remington rimfire.

One thing that annoys me about Eley rimfires is that in the 1960s they advertised their High Velocity as having a velocity of 1400ft./sec., which at a hundred yards made it superior in all respects to the hypervelocity rounds which were afterwards developed. Now their nearest equivalent is only 1200. If they did 1400 then, they could do it now, and if they can't, they didn't.

Did you ever shoot any of the 1400 FPS Eley stuff across a chronograph? I have shot some of the Aguila Interceptor 40 gr. RN thru my Anchuez Exemplar with a 10 inch barrel and it chrono'd from 1329 to 1471 with the average around 1410 fps. Isn't Aguila stuff licenced by Eley?

Tim

[35remington]

I have the depressing impression that bare shelves will be a more frequent theme in the coming years for rimfire ammo as the gun control idea gets even more politicized and events conspire to make people panic buy and hoard.

Here's the reality: Profit margins are small. Everyone shoots .22's and finds them useful, and wants to have an adequate supply.

These two things conspire to make the following truth: Existing supplies will be sold out immediately upon the next buying/hoarding panic, and low profit margins conspire to ensure that manufacturers will replace existing stocks slowly at best because they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's. Production of 22's is at a crawl compared to how fast we deplete it when hoarding and panic buying.

Not a good recipe for plentiful future supply over long periods of time. Most people realize this, and for a long time try to grab as much as they can. Buying patterns need to return to the mentality of "only a few boxes will do me" as if the supply was expected to be stable for a long period for things to truly get back to normal.

And as I said, that likely ain't happening. Things will probably have not stabilized by the time Hillary gets elected, and here we go all over again.

Need small animal/varmint/plinking ammo of stable availability? Get a small caliber centerfire and load your own. That's my future prediction and I'm currently in the process of making sure I can carry that out for an extended period of time. Relying on someone else to make your ammo is a poor policy in the time of panic and hoard buying.

It is unfortunate we have to discover this in this particular way.

To respond to the comments above, of course they will still make it. The problem is, they won't make it fast enough when panics set in, and I see these being more frequent in the future. Not less. So confidence that they will still make it does not translate to an assurance you will get it when you want it.

The question really asked? "Is the future of rimfire ammo gonna be spotty availability for extended periods of time?"

The answer to that is "most likely, especially if a Democrat is elected, and if Democrats heavily populate Congress, and contentious events keep happening."

Respond as you see fit to forestall that event. Most people's response is to buy as much as they can when they can......and supply keeps lagging as a result.

[oldred]

I am beginning to think maybe we will never see plentiful supplies like we once did, not only are the literally multitudes of people who before might keep a couple of boxes on hand now trying to stash away thousands but now we have hordes of people who don't even shoot grabbing it because "It will be worth a bundle soon"! The unfounded rumor that RF ammunition is a guaranteed profit when it can be found is getting to be a bigger problem than those who want to put back a stash as a hedge against the next panic (which almost surely will happen!), I personally know of at least two such people and I'm certain it has gotten to be very common. Anytime ANYTHING takes on a perceived value "Gold-Rush-Fever" sets in then the rumor feeds on itself and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage.

[35remington]

"and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage."

Then it's still a shortage, but for real reasons instead of imaginary ones. Unfortunately to the buyer there's no real difference between the two as there's no ammo either way.

And we're seeing just that happen now. It's been three years plus for this one, and it's still shortages everywhere. CCI's at the local Scheel's lasted for all of four hours. They had a lot of them to start.

[freebullet]

22 lol...Um.... I don't care.

I cast boolits and reload ammo therefore 22 and it's availability are of zero concern to me and, I find it hilarious that so many on a casting forum would be panty wadded or that we have 100 threads gripping over it. The only folks I feel sorry for in the 22 nonsense are the kids.

[oldred]

"and may last for many years -or at least until misguided regulation causes a real buying shortage."

Then it's still a shortage, but for real reasons instead of imaginary ones. Unfortunately to the buyer there's no real difference between the two as there's no ammo either way.

Yep it's still a shortage either way, looking at the numbers it could take years before those who want to "build a stash" are satisfied and the longer this lasts the worse the Gold-Fever will get! There are many thousands upon thousands of people who will still right now buy every round they can find at a decent price and when those folks are multiplied times the thousands of rounds it will still take to satisfy them it can amount to all the production for quite a while yet, probably several years.

[lefty o]

I have the depressing impression that bare shelves will be a more frequent theme in the coming years for rimfire ammo as the gun control idea gets even more politicized and events conspire to make people panic buy and hoard.

Here's the reality: Profit margins are small. Everyone shoots .22's and finds them useful, and wants to have an adequate supply.

These two things conspire to make the following truth: Existing supplies will be sold out immediately upon the next buying/hoarding panic, and low profit margins conspire to ensure that manufacturers will replace existing stocks slowly at best because they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's. Production of 22's is at a crawl compared to how fast we deplete it when hoarding and panic buying.

Not a good recipe for plentiful future supply over long periods of time. Most people realize this, and for a long time try to grab as much as they can. Buying patterns need to return to the mentality of "only a few boxes will do me" as if the supply was expected to be stable for a long period for things to truly get back to normal.

And as I said, that likely ain't happening. Things will probably have not stabilized by the time Hillary gets elected, and here we go all over again.

Need small animal/varmint/plinking ammo of stable availability? Get a small caliber centerfire and load your own. That's my future prediction and I'm currently in the process of making sure I can carry that out for an extended period of time. Relying on someone else to make your ammo is a poor policy in the time of panic and hoard buying.

It is unfortunate we have to discover this in this particular way.

To respond to the comments above, of course they will still make it. The problem is, they won't make it fast enough when panics set in, and I see these being more frequent in the future. Not less. So confidence that they will still make it does not translate to an assurance you will get it when you want it.

The question really asked? "Is the future of rimfire ammo gonna be spotty availability for extended periods of time?"

The answer to that is "most likely, especially if a Democrat is elected, and if Democrats heavily populate Congress, and contentious events keep happening."

Respond as you see fit to forestall that event. Most people's response is to buy as much as they can when they can......and supply keeps lagging as a result.

all rimfire production machinery is dedicated to production of rf ammunition, it cant be changed over to something else, therfore the manufacturers run it 24/7. if they arent running, they arent making money, therefore it runs non stop.

[Good Cheer]

Rifle or revolver, for small game and plinking you won't beat a plain vanilla cast .38 Spl with just enough powder to get it on it's way.

But I'd like to try to beat it with a .28-38Spl. in a 1892.

[35remington]

lefty, do you suppose the manufacturers expand their ability to make ammo at a greatly or even significantly increased rate when supplies are short?

No, they do not. Not really. The bigger problem is they don't have the ability to greatly or even significantly increase production capacity.

Let me quote myself:

"......they don't make any money if they devote too much production to making .22's."

That statement is still accurate despite your commentary. No extra machinery is purchased and brought online to make lots more ammo that generates low profits and has little ability to repay the cost of new machinery. Raw material is not greatly diverted to make more .22's because the existing machinery is already maxed out. Sure, they're running at full capacity.....which is completely inadequate capacity for high demand.

Full production capacity is geared toward average demand, not high demand. Full production capacity is predicated on the fact that it isn't all that needed right away and adequate existing stocks take up the average demand, with only the relative trickle representing full production capacity needed to maintain existing supplies at the dealers.

Noticed any 22's for three years? What would you say that says about "full production capacity" versus demand? Given it's been three plus years, what does that say about the full production ability to keep up?

All other ammo types have been restocked by now and have been for some time. Pistol. Centerfire rifle. Shotgun. Not .22's. Makes my comments seem rather on point.

The sad fact is it takes only a small spike in demand to crash the production capacity, and this is a big spike in demand over a long period of time.

If you don't mind, I don't feel the need to retract anything I stated.

[GhostHawk]

I've been leaning more towards the bator bullet, no check and 4.5 grains of Red Dot trying to hold just under the 1400 fps mark. Very little louder than a .22lr, similar speed, bit more punch with 55 grains vs 40. As accurate or better than most .22 rifles I've shot, there are perhaps a few exceptions. The ones I've shot at 100 yards if I aimed at a rabbits eye they would all have landed within 3/4 inch. I think if I was shooting golf balls at 100 I would hit most. Certainly minute of squirrel at up to 100 yards and potentially farther.

Partially because the little 55 gr bator goes through a third the lead of a 7.62 or .357.
Partially because I'm sitting on a couple thousand CCI small rifle primers, and that is the only caliber I reload that uses them. Partially because the Red Dot does not seem to care which brass it goes into. Partially because the 4.6 grain load seems to work well across a wide variety of calibers, so I can just set my measure, and just top it off as needed.

If I want to load something else I make a dipper or hand weigh each charge. (or both)

I have 2 rifles and 2 pistols that shoot .22lr and all are cleaned, oiled and stashed away till further notice.
I have enough I could shoot them if I desired, but I just don't have the desire.

I do take the old Ruger 10/22 to the range once a year, nostalgia mostly.
It was THE rifle when I owned mostly shotguns, we have many a mile under our boots together.

But for sheer fun I am as likely now to reach for a 9mm carbine or the big .357 mag. When you are shooting for kicks, might as well get a good one.